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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.