A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
